The era of photovoltaic tax rebate has come to an end, and the industry has entered a new round of reshuffle

Recently, the Chinese Ministry of Finance and the State Administration of Taxation jointly issued the "Announcement on Adjusting the Export Tax Refund Policy for Photovoltaic and Other Products" (No. 2 of 2026), casting a heavy "deep-water bomb" on the photovoltaic industry.

Clear policy:

Starting from April 1, 2026, the export tax rebate for value-added tax on photovoltaic and other products will be completely cancelled. The tax rebate rate for photovoltaic cells will be reduced from 9% to 6% from April 1, 2026, and the battery tax rebate will also be reset to zero from January 1, 2027.

This series of adjustments means that the fiscal subsidies for photovoltaic exports that have been implemented for many years have officially exited the historical stage, and China's photovoltaic industry has officially entered the era of "no tax refunds".

This change is not only a tax policy adjustment, but also seen by the industry as the beginning of a new round of industry restructuring.

The era of photovoltaic tax rebate has come to an end, and the industry has entered a new round of reshuffle

1、 Why cancel the tax refund? The core is' anti involution '

In recent years, the photovoltaic industry has been deeply mired in low price competition. Although the government has repeatedly proposed to address industry competition, the effectiveness has always been limited.

Since 2025, multiple departments including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology have continuously introduced policies to promote the optimization of industrial structure, with clear goals:

To curb disorderly price competition and promote the industry to return to rational development. But the reality is that the price war in the photovoltaic industry has not disappeared, but has extended from domestic markets to overseas markets.

Industry research shows that some companies directly convert export tax rebates that originally belonged to their profits into price reduction space during overseas project negotiations, in order to compete for orders. This approach is equivalent to reducing the tax burden given by the state to enterprises and transforming it into an "implicit subsidy" for overseas buyers.

In response, the China Photovoltaic Industry Association has publicly stated that:

Some companies directly use tax refunds to lower their quotes, resulting in a continuous compression of industry profits. The consequences of this behavior are very obvious:

Enterprise profits are severely diluted

The global price war is intensifying

The risk of trade frictions is increasing

The industry as a whole is in a state of 'selling more and losing more'

Against the backdrop of overcapacity, tax refunds have actually intensified vicious competition. Therefore, canceling tax refunds is seen as a crucial step in addressing low price competition.

2、 The inevitable choice under the imbalance of supply and demand

From the perspective of industry fundamentals, there is still a significant oversupply in the photovoltaic industry.

The data shows that:

Domestic polysilicon compliance production capacity is about 2.4 million tons

Global reasonable demand is about 1.5 million tons

The nominal production capacity of the entire photovoltaic industry chain exceeds 1100GW

Expected global new installed capacity of approximately 500GW by 2026

Mismatch between supply and demand means:

If we continue to rely on tax refunds to support exports, the price war will never end. Some companies even rely on tax refunds to maintain cash flow, and compete for orders through ultra-low quotes, further suppressing the overall profits of the industry.

Therefore, from a policy perspective, canceling tax refunds is not only a fiscal adjustment, but also a structural measure to promote the healthy development of the industry.

Simply put, in order to end vicious competition, it is necessary to first cut off the source of low price subsidies.

3、Short term impact after policy implementation

After the implementation of the new policy, the most direct impact is the increase in export costs.

Industry calculations show that:

The export profit of a single component will significantly decrease

The profit margin of second and third tier enterprises is further compressed

Low gross profit enterprises face enormous survival pressure

For contract manufacturers and small and medium-sized enterprises with already meager profits, the impact is particularly evident.

At the same time, due to the clear timeline for the cancellation of tax refunds, there has been a phenomenon of "export competition" in the market:

Overseas customers request shipment before the end of March

Factory overtime to catch up with work

Centralized release of orders in the first quarter

Although this centralized shipment can boost export data in the short term, it will also overdraw subsequent demand and lead to periodic market fluctuations.

4、The industry landscape will accelerate differentiation

In the long run, the cancellation of tax refunds is more like a "stress test" that will quickly widen the gap between enterprises.

Top enterprises with technological, cost, and brand advantages will usher in new expansion opportunities.

On the contrary, small and medium-sized enterprises that rely on low price competition and lack technological advantages may face:

Zero profit

Order reduction

Forced to exit the market

As the industry enters a stage of rational competition, the trend of "stronger for the strong and clearer for the weak" will become more apparent.

5、Thoroughly changing the logic of going abroad

The cancellation of tax refunds will profoundly change the global strategy of Chinese photovoltaic enterprises.

past times:

Low cost manufacturing+tax rebate advantage=export competitiveness

future:

Localized production+technology brand=core competitiveness

Against the backdrop of continued tightening of trade policies in Europe and America, overseas factory construction is shifting from an "optional" to a "mandatory" option.

Only by achieving localized production can enterprises effectively avoid tariffs and trade barriers.

6、An era ends, a new cycle begins

The withdrawal of photovoltaic export tax rebates marks the official end of the era of relying on policy dividends and low-priced expansion.

In the future, industry competition will no longer be just a price competition, but a comprehensive strength competition:

Technological innovation capability

Cost control level

global layout

Brand and Service

It can be foreseen that the photovoltaic industry will enter a period of deep adjustment in the coming years.

And the companies that can cross the cycle are inevitably those with core competitiveness and global strategy.

For the entire industry, this policy change is not only a challenge, but also a crucial step towards high-quality development.